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03:50
11/09/20
11/09
03:50
11/09/20
03:50

FX Action: The dollar has posted fresh trend lows

FX Action: The dollar has posted fresh trend lows, continuing last week's weakening theme. It's notable that the dollar has continued to decline despite Friday's unambiguously solid U.S. jobs report and that it has remained heavy in the new week, which is revelatory of where sentiment is with regard to the U.S. currency. The ongoing dollar weakness has hinged on ongoing risk-off positioning in global markets, which has been lifting stock markets and most commodity prices. Markets are discounting a Biden presidency with a split congress, and most seem to be anticipating that Trump's litigation efforts will come to naught. The Democrats failure to dominate the election has evidently been a relief for markets, given the implication for tax policy and regulation. Incoming economic data, meanwhile, have continued to help bolster investor spirits. Not least is the strong trade data out of China, which showed exports rising 11.4% y/y and imports rising 4.7% y/y in October. Both readings were above consensus forecasts, and China's trade surplus is now 50% bigger than when Trump took office in 2017. At the same time Trump waged his trade war with China, Beijing worked on reaching an agreement with ASEAN countries, along with Japan and South Korea, in joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program. The positive benefits of this to China has offset the negative impacts of the trade war with the U.S. Japan's Tankan survey of business sentiment for November showed improvement with both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing headlines rising to 1-13 readings, up from -26 and -16, respectively, from October headlines. In currencies, the DXY dollar index printed a two-month low at 92.13. EUR-USD posted an eight-week high at 1.1899. USD-JPY, in contrast, managed to lift moderately, back above 103.50, leaving last week's eight-month low at 103.17 unchallenged. Japanese fiance minister said that policymakers there are watching forex markets with a sense of "urgency." China's yuan lifted in what is now its sixth consecutive week of gain, posting its highest level against the dollar since June 2018, and making fundamental sense given the strength of China's balance of payments position. AUD-USD lifted above 0.7300 for the first time in seven weeks. USD-CAD posted a two-month low at 1.3002.

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