FX Update: The DXY dollar index has posted a one-month high at 90.88, which sets up potential for a third consecutive up week, which is something that hasn't been seen since January last year. Other currencies have mostly softened, especially the dollar bloc and other cyclical currencies as global stock markets have continued to sputter. Chinese equities have been the exception, with the CSI 300 showing over a 1% gain in the late afternoon session having rebounded out of early declines following strong growth data. China Q4 GDP rose 6.5% y/y, beating the median forecast for 6.1%, with full-year growth coming in at 2.3%, which is impressive given all other major economies contracted. Equity markets in Asia outside of China failed to catch a coattail, with the main indices in Japan, South Korea and Australia, for instance, all racking up fairly hefty declines. Stock markets around the world have lost the 'great reflation trade' spirit that had been so strong in November and December. Various factors seem to account for this. One is that the winter surge in Covid across the densely populated northern hemisphere has been perhaps worse than many had been anticipating, leading to tight societal restrictions across major economic areas, albeit not as severe as seen during the 'mother lockdowns' seen in the first wave. New variants in the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus has been a further concern, given the risk they could render current vaccinations less effective or even ineffective (a better understanding about this should emerge over the coming weeks). This has come asset valuations at lofty levels, ranging from the record highs in U.S. indices to the nine-year highs in iron ore prices, and with investors relatively low on spare cash. In the mix was an apparent sell-the-fact type of reaction after U.S. president-elect Biden last Thursday confirmed a $1.9 tln fiscal spending package. The transition of political power in the U.S. this Friday is also being viewed as something of a risk event, given the threat of violent protests. The cautious sentiment looks likely to persist for now.

FX Update: The DXY dollar index has posted a one-month high at 90.88, which sets up potential for a third consecutive up week, which is something that hasn't been seen since January last year. Other currencies have mostly softened, especially the dollar bloc and other cyclical currencies as global stock markets have continued to sputter. Chinese equities have been the exception, with the CSI 300 showing over a 1% gain in the late afternoon session having rebounded out of early declines following strong growth data. China Q4 GDP rose 6.5% y/y, beating the median forecast for 6.1%, with full-year growth coming in at 2.3%, which is impressive given all other major economies contracted. Equity markets in Asia outside of China failed to catch a coattail, with the main indices in Japan, South Korea and Australia, for instance, all racking up fairly hefty declines. Stock markets around the world have lost the 'great reflation trade' spirit that had been so strong in November and December. Various factors seem to account for this. One is that the winter surge in Covid across the densely populated northern hemisphere has been perhaps worse than many had been anticipating, leading to tight societal restrictions across major economic areas, albeit not as severe as seen during the 'mother lockdowns' seen in the first wave. New variants in the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus has been a further concern, given the risk they could render current vaccinations less effective or even ineffective (a better understanding about this should emerge over the coming weeks). This has come asset valuations at lofty levels, ranging from the record highs in U.S. indices to the nine-year highs in iron ore prices, and with investors relatively low on spare cash. In the mix was an apparent sell-the-fact type of reaction after U.S. president-elect Biden last Thursday confirmed a $1.9 tln fiscal spending package. The transition of political power in the U.S. this Friday is also being viewed as something of a risk event, given the threat of violent protests. The cautious sentiment looks likely to persist for now.