2020-12-01 10:50:02 10:50 12/01/20 12/0110:50 12/01/2010:50 | The U.S. ISM drop to 57.5The U.S. ISM drop to 57.5 from a lofty 2-year high of 59.3 in October but a lower 55.4 in September still leaves the index fluctuating around its highest levels since August of 2018. The index has been deep in expansionary territory since June. The sentiment indicators remain strong despite a November moderation with renewed coronavirus cases, as output rises in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales. Analysts expect the November ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys to fall to 55 from a 2-year high of 58 in October, 56 in September, and 54 in July and August, versus a 36 trough in April and a 2008-09 bottom of 37.1 in March of 2009. Analysts assume a 56 average in Q4, after averages of 55 in Q3, 44 in Q2 and 52 in Q1. The jobs index fell to a 3-month low of 48.4 from a 1-year high of 53.2, though new orders fell only slightly, to a still-robust 65.1 from a 17-year high of 67.9 in October. Analysts left our November nonfarm payroll estimate at 540k, with modest downside risk from today's weak employment index. |
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