U.S. nonfarm payroll preview

U.S. nonfarm payroll preview: analysts expect a 540k November increase in nonfarm payrolls after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September, and 1,494k in August. Factory jobs should rise 55k versus the prior 38k gain. The jobless rate should be steady at 6.9%, having fallen measurably from the 14.7% peak in April. Hours-worked are assumed to grow 0.5% after a 0.8% October gain, with the workweek steady at a 20-year high of 34.8 for a third consecutive month, versus 34.7 in August. Average hourly earnings are expected to edge up 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. Analysts previously saw a 3.5% expansion-high pace for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost in March and April. Analysts expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though at a moderating pace, especially with the resurgence in the virus and the renewed lockdowns, that will leave a net drop in 2020 employment overall.